© Sam Greenfield/Volvo Ocean Race
The Volvo Ocean Race fleet continues its relentless charge east, towards Cape Horn on Thursday, enjoying the best the Southern Ocean has to offer.
The teams have been skirting the southern race course boundary and racing in strong but manageable winds in the 20-25 knot range which have allowed the crews to rack up 500 mile days.
But that’s all about to change.
Sailing south of a high-pressure system, the fleet has enjoyed bright sunshine and relatively warm temperatures from the northerly wind direction.
The forecast however is for a cold front to back the wind into the west-southwest, dropping the temperature significantly. The wind is forecast to increase to 35-40 knots, or even higher, for several days, and the accompanying sea state will make manoeuvres challenging.
© Ugo Fonolla/Volvo Ocean Race
“So far it’s been rough, but fast,” notes Rob Greenhalgh from second-placed MAPFRE. “We’ve had 20-25 knots which is perfect. But in about 24 hours, we’re expecting an increase from the west to about 35 knots…”
“It is going to be heavy conditions for three or four days, 35-45 knots, perhaps more,” said Dongfeng skipper Charles Caudrelier. “Also a huge sea, maybe 10 metres.”
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The sailors will be weighing their options: they can either continue to bounce along the southern race course boundary of the Ice Exclusion Zone, or come further north, which would take them out of the strongest conditions. It’s a delicate balance of speed versus security given the heavy forecast.
Team AkzoNobel watch captain Chris Nicholson, a race veteran, is well aware of what’s ahead: “Just coming in to all that breeze, all that grief ahead… Our aim here on AkzoNobel is to get across safely and with the boat in one piece. It’s a big ask. At least a week in 30-40 knots in the Southern Ocean is just a massive, massive effort.”
© James Blake/Volvo Ocean Race
Nicholson and his team held on to a narrow lead as of 1300 UTC on Thursday, just a couple of miles ahead of MAPFRE. In fact, the distance between first and fifth (Team Brunel) is less than 10 miles, making for another very close leg.
And even back to seventh placed SHK/Scallywag, sitting some 60 miles behind the leader, the weather routing projections offer hope.
© Konrad Frost/Volvo Ocean Race
“We have to keep the boat in good shape and hold it together,” navigator Libby Greenhalgh said. “It’s going to be survival for everyone. But when that strong breeze starts to ease, there’s a secondary low developing and for us that could be an opportunity to close on the fleet. At the moment I have us compressing to within about half an hour to an hour of the fleet at Cape Horn, and with 2,000 miles left to Itajaí anything can happen.”
But one step at a time - a big weekend of Southern Ocean racing is in the forecast.
Leg 7
Auckland to Itajaí
22 March 2018
Positions at: 13:00 UTC
DTL nm
GAIN_LOSS
STATUS
SPEED kt
COURSE
TWS kt
TWD
DTF nm
1
AKZO
0.00
0.00
RAC
19.7
72º
20.0
309º
5024.12
2
MAPF
1.41
7.19
RAC
23.6
79º
27.0
296º
5025.53
3
VS11
5.56
4.98
RAC
21.7
69º
26.8
298º
5029.69
4
DFRT
6.60
3.03
RAC
22.1
69º
24.3
296º
5030.72
5
TBRU
9.53
7.22
RAC
22.7
82º
26.0
304º
5033.65
6
TTOP
25.34
13.25
RAC
23.8
81º
26.8
302º
5049.47
7
SHKS
59.45
4.28
RAC
17.7
66º
20.5
305º
5083.57
