The only certainty is uncertainty


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Dongfeng Race Team's Kevin Escoffier might want to be over on Turn the Tide on Plastic but I would choose to be on team AkzoNobel today as they have regained the lead in dramatic fashion, breaking out of the first transition zone in this doldrums crossing with the rest of the fleet bobbing painfully without wind.

The Pacific doldrums are, as we saw in Leg 4, a much more prolonged affair than the well modelled and well understood Atlantic passage, and while AkzoNobel have clearly won the first battle, there will be more to come.

Clouds have again played a crucial part, and the massive cell just to the west of Sun Hun Kai/Scallywag and team AkzoNobel initially favoured Turn the Tide on Plastic farther out to the east in less disturbed wind.

For a few hours this morning it looked like they may have sailed around the fleet and into the lead. However, now that the cloud activity is collapsing, AkzoNobel, in the most southerly position in the fleet, can access the new westerlies and have got the jump on the rest of the fleet.

As I look at the live data coming off the boats at 1300 UTC, they have 10.5 knots of wind from the north west. The others? It's painful. MAPFRE, 3.00. Team Brunel 4.32. Dongfeng Race Team with just 2.25.

This has allowed the purple boat to gain 35 miles on their Dutch compatriots on Brunel and over 44 miles on Turn the Tide on Plastic.

Whether it's a lead that lasts remains to be seen. There's more uncertainty to come.

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